Friday, October 17, 2014

Will the Pacific Northwest be a Climate Refuge Under Global Warming?

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/07/will-pacific-northwest-be-climate.html?m=1

Monday, July 28, 2014

Will the Pacific Northwest be a Climate Refuge Under Global Warming?

As global warming takes hold later in the century, where will be the best place in the lower 48 states to escape its worst effects? 

A compelling case can be made that the Pacific Northwest will be one of the best places to live as the earth warms.   A potential climate refuge. 

Let's analyze this important question.

I will start with a clean map and highlight problematic areas as the climate warms.


Sea Level Rise

Low-lying coastal areas will be vulnerable as sea-level rises 1-2 feet during the next 85 years.  Based on USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) publications (for example, the USGS threat maps below), I have indicated problematic locations in red.  Forget Florida.





Red areas indicates regions that will experience substantial negative impacts of global warming from sea level rise

Water Availability

 Climate models are emphatic that the SW U.S. will get less precipitation and evaporation will increase as the temperature increases.  This will substantially reduce water availability for agricultural and other uses (see figure for the situation in 2050 that is in the recent U.S. National Climate Assessment). Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, eastern Colorado, Nebraska and Florida are also heavily impacted.

Based on this document and others, I have marked up the U.S. map with yellow to indicate areas that will be highly stressed for water.


Hurricanes and Tropical Storms

Although the latest research does not suggest that the number of hurricanes will increase, much of the literature is emphatic the the most intensive hurricanes will get considerably worse.  The regions influenced by hurricanes should not change much, as illustrated by the150-year hurricane track climatology (see graphic).  The SE U.S. and the East Coast are most threatened, and I note that more severe hurricanes can cause both  increased storm surge damage along the coast and heavy


precipitation/flooding in in the interior.  I have marked (in orange) additional locations that might be significantly affected by hurricanes.


Heat Waves

Heat wave can be big killers, particularly for the elderly.  Here is the temperature change maps from the latest U.S. Climate Assessment


The interior of the continent really heats up, with the West Coast moderated by the cool Pacific Ocean.  So, in the U.S. map I have put purple dots for the blank locations with substantial heat wave risk.


Other Issues

With warming temperatures, the atmosphere will hold more water vapor, potentially leading to more precipitation.  The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel  on Climate Change) notes considerable uncertainty on the distribution of resulting flooding, but the U.S. National Assessment notes that the biggest increases during the contemporary period has been in the Midwest (see graphic).


My own research has suggested that atmospheric rivers could be enhanced under global warming, which might result in increased flooding, but only near major rivers draining western U.S. mountains. To denote that risk I will put a few green dots on the map.  No issue for Seattle assuming the Howard Hansen dam is properly maintained.


There are many other, more minor, issues that I won't deal with here.  According to the U.S. National Climate Assessment, ticks capable of  transmitting Lyme's disease could become far more prevalent in the Midwest under global warming (see graphic)


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So what conclusion does one inevitably reach by studying the IPCC reports, the U.S. Climate Assessment, and the climate literature?

The Northwest is the place to be during global warming.   
  • Temperatures will rise more slowly than most of the nation due to the Pacific Ocean (see below)  
  • We will have plenty of precipitation, although the amount falling as snow will decline (will fall as rain instead).  But we can deal with that by building more reservoir and dam capacity (and some folks on the eastern slopes of the Cascades have proposed to do exactly that).
  • The Pacific Ocean will keep heat waves in check and we don't get hurricanes.
  • Sea level rise is less of a problem for us due to our substantial terrain and the general elevation rise of our shorelines.  Furthermore, some of our land is actually RISING relatively to the sea level because we are still recovering from the last ice age (the heavy ice sheets pushed the land down and now it is still rebounding).
  • There is no indication that our major storms...cyclone-based winds (like the Columbus Day Storm)... will increase under global warming.  
  • Increased precipitation may produce more flooding, but that will be limited to river valleys and can be planned for with better river management and zoning.
Temperature of the eastern Pacific, which controls Northwest weather, have been COOLING the last 35 years (blue color)

Several media outlets have noted that the Northwest and its principal city, Seattle, should be particularly good places to ride out a warming planet.  Here is an example:


Portland State University has also done a study suggesting that the Willamette Valley will be a magnet for the global warming migrants:

Yes, the Northwest may well become a climate refuge during the upcoming century.  
The big question?  


How do we keep the Californians out?   One idea is shown below.




Thursday, September 11, 2014

9 of the Most Fascinating Abandoned Mansions from Around the World

http://www.stumbleupon.com/su/4X1VaW/1NAZrH_h3:8AYZ+5oU/io9.com/9-of-the-most-fascinating-abandoned-mansions-from-aroun-471010619

9 of the Most Fascinating Abandoned Mansions from Around the WorldEXPAND12345...31
There's something particularly spectacular about witnessing the decay of a once-grand building. Lavish trappings fall into disrepair, once proud halls play host to insects and dust, and elegantly constructed architecture is exposed to time and the elements. Here are nine crumbling mansions that are fascinating to look at and come with some intriguing backstories.

Pidhirtsi Castle, Pidhirtsi, Ukraine

9 of the Most Fascinating Abandoned Mansions from Around the World
This castle, built between 1635 and 1640, was once richly furnished, but during World War I, Russian soldiers destroyed the lavish interior. Later, the castle belonged to prince Roman Sanguszko, who removed some of its valuable furnishings in 1939 and took them to Brazil. After WWII, the Soviets reopened it as a Tubercolosis sanitarium, but in 1956 the old castle caught fire and burned for three weeks, destroying the last of its interior beauty. The Lviv Gallery of Arts is trying to restore the building, but at present, there aren't any visible changes.
(via Shutterstock/seregalsv and Explore Ukraine)

Château Miranda or Château de Noisy, Celles, Belgium

9 of the Most Fascinating Abandoned Mansions from Around the WorldEXPAND
9 of the Most Fascinating Abandoned Mansions from Around the WorldEXPAND
Château Miranda was built in 1866 by an English architect for the Liedekerke-Beaufort family. The family lived there until World War II, when it was taken over by the National Railway Company of Belgium. It's empty since 1991, in part because the family refuses to turn it over to the municipality of Celles.

Halcyon Hall, Bennett College, Millbrook, New York

9 of the Most Fascinating Abandoned Mansions from Around the WorldEXPAND
Halcyon Hall was originally built as a luxury hotel in 1890, but closed in 1901. However, the hall enjoyed a second life when, a few years later, the Bennett School for Girls moved in, making the building home and school to students from prominent families. However, with the rise of coeducational schooling, the Bennett failed to thrive, going bankrupt and shuttering its doors in 1978.

Friday, August 15, 2014

Are you ready for your town to be the next Ferguson?

3 Day Emergency Backpack Checklist:
Toilet paper (half roll zip lock bag)

Toothpaste
Toothbrush
Hand santizer
Soap (hotel size)
Shampoo (hotel size)
Body lotion (hotel size)
Lip balm
Contacts and solution (if applicable)
Prescription Medications (if applicable)
Wash cloth
Hand towel
Q tips
Folding knife
Leatherman multi-tool
Battery Powered Radio w/ extra batteries
1 Deck of Cards
Extra Set of Keys
List of Family Physicians
List of important information, license plate, serial number of pacemaker, etc.
compass (combo compass, thermometer, whistle)
Mini Mag lite
Head lamp
Extra batteries
Water filter
2 Water Bottles
Leather work gloves
Several Black trash bags (in Zip lock bag)
1 box strike anywhere matches (in Zip lock bag)
3 Bic lighters (zip lock bag)
Fire starter or sticks (zip lock bag)
Water purification tablets 
Carabiner 
Nylon para cord 
Dust breathing mask 
Binoculars-small 
Poncho 
Camouflage Tarp
Small first aid kit
Kotex (large bandage)
Ink pen, pencil and note pad (zip lock bag)
Cash money
2 pairs of socks
2 pairs of underwear
2 T-shirts (one white, one dark color or camo)
1 pair of pants
1 Hat
Duct tape
Emergency thermal space blanket 
Large thermal blanket (ground cover or lean to)
safty glasses 
Metal cup
2 MREs
2 MRE heaters
2 Freeze dried Food packs 
1 Can Opener
Several Power Bars or Peanut butter in small plastic container
Raisins or other non-perishable dried fruit
Coffee bags or Tea bags
2 Road Flares or Flare Gun
1 Disposable Burner Phone
Emergency Phone Number List
1 Good Book
you are now up to nearly 20 pounds (if not a bit over) with full water bottles

Saturday, July 19, 2014

BOOT LACE COVERT HANDCUFF KEY #How-to #lockpicking #handcuffs #DIY

This site has them for $15.00, but I bet one could easily fashion one now that the impetus has been given. :) Happy hacking.

http://www.shomer-tec.com/product/boot-lace-covert-handcuff-key-1574.cfm

BOOT LACE COVERT HANDCUFF KEY
BOOT%20LACE%20COVERT%20HANDCUFF%20KEYThis covert handcuff key was developed for an elite U.S. unit whose members are at high risk of being taken captive and require improved odds of escape.  

It was designed to have a near zero likelihood of detection, yet still have the capability to be rapidly accessed when required. This was achieved by engineering a unique covert hide-out key which is located seemingly far out-of-reach of a handcuffed captive.

Discreetly attached to the tip of your bootlace, this handcuff key does not seem to be within any useful proximity while handcuffed behind your back. But just bend your knee up sharply and it puts it right into your hands! This works whether standing, sitting, or prone. Grasp the device, and then return your foot to its original position; as your foot descends the lace unties, leaving you with a tethered handcuff key in your hand.

Fits on all standard boot laces (not included). A black rubber cover is included to protect and further conceal the key. Installs easily using just a regular pair of pliers (directions included). Constructed of blackened brass. Length: 3/4". Weight: 0.017 oz. Patent pending. Made in USA.

Sunday, May 25, 2014

Five Famous Sci-Fi Weapons That They're Actually Building

(if you think this is scary, check out the date it was written...)

http://www.cracked.com/article_16477_5-famous-sci-fi-weapons-that-theyre-actually-building.html

5 Famous Sci-Fi Weapons That They're Actually Building

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Ever find yourself watching a movie, and at the moment the villain whips out an elaborately sinister doomsday device, you say, "Hey, I wouldn't mind having one of those things!"
Well, it turns out defense contractors are thinking the exact same thing. The only difference is they have billions to spend to make it happen. Coming soon to a battlefield near you:
#5.
The Advanced Tactical Laser, Boeing's Flying Laser Cannon
We've been waiting for a good freaking death ray for, oh, about 70 years. So when Boeing says, " ... directed energy weapons are relevant to today's battlefield and are ready to be fielded," we pay attention.
Now, Boeing's already doing a few interesting things with laser technology on a smaller scale (like mounting devices to Humvees and using them to detonate bombs from a safe distance. They can also put a bigger one in a jumbo jet and use it to destroy incoming ICBMs from hundreds of miles away. But those are hardly death rays, right? They're reassuring defensive measures designed to protect our brave men and women!
That's where the Advanced Tactical Laser comes in.
Designed to engage (that is, utterly destroy) ground targets, the ATL is a weapon fitted to an aircraft like a C-130 transport plane. From 10,000 feet up and five miles away, this 40,000-pound, megawatt-class, chemical laser will melt a hole through a tank.
Or should we say, tanks. The ATL is intended to strike up to 100 targets in rapid succession. Oh, and the beam's silent. And invisible. One moment you're having a nice cup of coffee atop your troop transport, the next you're a smoking hole in the ground.
This space age, science fiction gadget is scheduled for live fire demonstrations later this year.
Where They Got the Idea:
Independence Day.
Or, quite possibly from the 1985 Val Kilmer comedy Real Genius.
#4.
Railguns, the Navy's Fleet-Destroying Doom Cannons
If you're into sci-fi or first-person shooters, chances are we had you at "railgun." For everyone else, there's the above picture. If you can't make out the writing there, it says "Velocitas Eradico." Speed destroys. That's from a recent railgun demonstration by the US Navy.
Railguns work by electrically generated magnetic repulsion, no toxic chemicals or propellants involved--so yay, finally a gun that kills people and not the environment! In the test pictured above, the projectile was fired with an electric charge of 10.6 megajoules, that's a one second pulse of 10.6 million watts, or enough electricity to power the average American household for a year. When applied in a single split second to an aluminum slug that's much, much smaller than your house, it's enough to make the slug do Mach 7. For those of you who just imagined a seven blade razor, first pretend you're not an idiot, and then try to conceive of something moving fast enough to ignite the air around it and to fuck up anything it strikes in ways science barely understands.
How far away are these things? Well, the Navy intends to put 64 megajoule railguns in their new, all-electric DD(X) battleships, which should be ready in 10 years.
Winston Churchill, in a quote that wasn't used on Navy recruiting posters, dismissed Naval tradition as "rum, buggery and the lash." In American, that's "rum, boning dudes and the lash." If Churchill's right, we just hope the rum makes the sodomy go down easier. We'd join a radical off-shoot of Scientology that thought Tom Cruise was too heterosexual and timid in his beliefs if there was a chance we'd get to fire a railgun.
Where They Got the Idea:
They seem to have combined Quake's railgun ...
... with the BFG 9000 from Doom.